ONDO is a cryptocurrency platform that helps connect regular financial assets with blockchain technology. ONDO is also a governance token. This means people who own ONDO tokens can vote on important decisions. They can vote on upgrades and changes to the platform.
The ONDO token hit its highest price ever in December 2024. It reached $2.14 at that time. Since then, the price has been falling. This article will look at whether ONDO can reach that high price again. A crypto analyst will give their opinion on this question.
Cryptocurrency analyst Gerhard from the popular Bitcoin Strategy YouTube channel has been closely examining Ondo Finance, and his analysis reveals some compelling insights about the token’s potential trajectory. Despite lackluster price performance over the past year, with Ondo dropping 42% while Bitcoin gained 48%, Gerhard points out that the token remains the third most viewed cryptocurrency on CoinGecko, suggesting sustained investor interest beneath the surface volatility.
Gerhard emphasizes that Ondo Finance holds a unique position as the leading real-world asset (RWA) token in the cryptocurrency space. While other tokens like Chainlink and Stellar rank higher in RWA market cap categories, he explains that these projects serve broader purposes beyond real-world assets. Chainlink functions primarily as an oracle network, and Stellar operates as its own blockchain ecosystem. This positioning makes Ondo effectively the number one pure-play RWA token, according to his assessment.
The analyst identifies a significant challenge that has weighed on Ondo’s price performance: tokenomics. At the beginning of 2025, the token experienced a major unlock event that more than doubled the circulating supply from 1.5 billion to 3.44 billion tokens. Gerhard notes this supply inflation explains much of Ondo’s 60% underperformance relative to Bitcoin since the unlock occurred.
Growing Platform Adoption Despite Price Struggles
Looking beyond price action, Gerhard highlights impressive adoption metrics that paint a different picture of Ondo’s fundamentals. The platform currently serves as a bridge for institutional investors entering the crypto ecosystem through stablecoins, benefiting from the broader trend of money flowing from traditional finance into cryptocurrency markets.
On-chain data reveals over 141,000 wallets currently hold Ondo tokens, with consistent growth across all investor categories. Gerhard’s analysis shows long-term accumulation patterns among retail investors holding at least 1,000 tokens ($828 worth), mid-tier investors with 10,000 tokens ($8,000), and whale investors holding 100,000 or more tokens ($80,000 worth). This broad-based accumulation suggests growing confidence in the project’s long-term prospects.
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The analyst also points to an emerging catalyst that could drive the next wave of adoption: Ondo Finance’s Global Markets project, which aims to bring US securities onto the blockchain. Gerhard explains that the regulatory environment has shifted favorably under the Trump administration, with changes in SEC leadership potentially opening doors for tokenized stock offerings that were previously blocked.
Gerhard analysis reveals interesting dynamics in Ondo’s trading patterns. While spot trading volume on Coinbase reached only $9 million in a 24-hour period, perpetual futures trading on MEXC hit $135 million, indicating significant leverage in the market. This disparity suggests that short-term price movements are heavily influenced by leveraged positions rather than fundamental buying and selling pressure.
The analyst notes that perpetual futures open interest has been declining, which typically precedes reduced volatility and potentially creates better entry opportunities for spot investors. He observes that when leverage decreases and open interest falls, it often sets up conditions for more sustainable price movements driven by actual adoption rather than speculative trading.
When examining Ondo’s performance relative to Ethereum, since the token trades primarily on Ethereum-based liquidity pools, Gerhard identifies a potential trading range that could offer significant upside. His analysis suggests that if Ondo underperforms Ethereum by another 10% from current levels, it could create an attractive entry point with potential for over 100% outperformance during the subsequent rally.
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However, Gerhard cautions about timing considerations. Another token unlock is scheduled for early 2026, which will increase supply by approximately 50% from current levels. While this inflation rate is less severe than the previous unlock, he suggests considering exit strategies before year-end to avoid potential price pressure from the looming supply increase.
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